Outlook: The impact of the 2021 epidemic on China's foreign trade

Guide: Due to the impact of the epidemic this year and the changes in the US's China policy, many foreign trade companies have been hit to varying degrees.

However, for now, the global environment has improved. According to recent surveys, since August this year, my country’s foreign export trade volume has reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. This is from last year’s March. The highest growth rate since January, the signs of export power generator crossword clue recovery are obvious. Then it is not only necessary to ask, will the epidemic end in 2021? As far as China's foreign trade is concerned, is it possible to restore the original development model?

Don't be too optimistic, the epidemic will continue in 2021 for the following reasons:

1. Safe and effective vaccines will not be popularized until the end of 2021

World Health Organization spokesperson Fadela Chaib said that until September 28, the World Health Organization has listed 191 new crown vaccines, of which 151 are in the development stage before clinical trials, and 40 candidate vaccines are in clinical trials. It is continuing, and 10 of the candidate vaccines are in the third phase of clinical trials. Shahib said: “The first batch of vaccines may be put into use in mid-2021. There will be a limited supply of vaccines in the initial stage. It is very important for all countries to supply these auto switch generator vaccines to high-risk groups. We are still a few months away from safe and effective vaccines. The production and distribution of vaccines takes time. We must adhere to the current public health prevention and control measures to disrupt the infection chain and control the epidemic, and we should use the means at hand."

Pang Zhongying, a distinguished professor of Ocean University of China, said that the current consensus around the world is that the epidemic will continue until 2021, and the following autumn and winter seasons in 2020 will be a critical moment for countries around the world to respond to the development of the epidemic. Epidemiologist Bruce Aylward also warns everyone that all expectations should not be pinned on vaccines that "are not expected to be mass vaccination until 2022." Recently, the editor-in-chief of The Economist interviewed Mr. Bill Gates. He admitted that the global pandemic will not end until at least the end of 2021.

2. According to the historical experience of human outbreaks, we must be prepared to fight for another year avataria generator de gold

According to historical experience, the epidemic is expected to end within 1-3 years, such as the Spanish flu in 1918-1920 (actually originated in the United States)

The Spanish flu began in January 1918 and ended in December 1920 and can be simply divided into three waves:

The first wave occurred in the spring of 1918 and was basically just a common influenza

The second wave occurred in the autumn of 1918 and was the wave with the highest mortality rate.

The third wave occurred from the winter of 1919 to the spring of 1920, and the mortality rate was between the first and second waves

Search for documentaries and books about the pandemic. The more reliable reason for the end is that by 1920, people in the world who might be exposed to the pandemic virus were infected, and those who did not resist died, and those who resisted had antibodies, and the antibodies were passed on to the next generation. It is objectively and rationally estimated that the global pandemic may last for about two years and will basically end in December 2021. As the British Prime Minister said before, the surviving people form herd immunity, preventing the virus from spreading.

3. The current global epidemic is still worsening, and this winter will face a second wave of outbreaks

Professor Zhang Wenhong and Academician Zhong Nanshan both put forward the same argument. China is still facing the challenge of the second wave of the epidemic. Cold weather is more suitable for the survival of the virus. In autumn and winter, people like indoor gathering activities. In a sealed place, if the necessary protective measures are not properly implemented, the risk of virus infection will increase.

Last year, the outbreak and spread of the epidemic in Wuhan’s South China market occurred at the beginning of the Spring Festival and during the Spring Festival. I can’t help but worry, will the epidemic break out again this year? For the world, unless this epidemic can end this summer, the second wave of epidemics that broke out in the fall and winter will worsen the epidemic abroad.